NetWar: Can a machine tell the outcome?


Contents Letter From Paris

Contents Letter From Paris


Thursday, September 02, 2004

 

Can a machine tell the outcome?

Have a good look at this article in Bloomberg

According to some esoteric business mathematical models the winner of Big T election can be predicted... And the winner is...
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush will win four more years in the White House under formulas devised by professors to predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. It may not be that simple an equation.

Eight forecasting models are unanimous in predicting Bush will defeat Democrat John Kerry with as much as 57.5 percent of the vote. The models are based on measures including economic-growth projections and opinion polls. Economist Ray Fair of Yale University says his model correctly accounts for the popular vote in 19 of the past 22 elections.

Even so, forecasters such as political scientist James Campbell say the hunt for terrorist Osama bin Laden and discontent with the war in Iraq are among wild cards that may muddle the modeling. Many forecasts are at odds with polls showing Kerry, 60, running even with Bush, 58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, down about 1.4 percent this year, isn't providing Bush with an election-year boost either.

MORE...


Well, i don't believe in this sort of thing. After all, they can't even predict how the stock market is going to behave, so why in heavens could they do better in predicting election outcomes?

# posted by Juan A. Hervada @ 1:25 PM



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About Me

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Location: Paris, France

I have been a journalist since I was 22. For a (long) while I worked as a reporter for the Swedish, Spanish (I was born in Spain) and American media, covering international affairs... After 1991 I recycled myself to the business press.


 A Must Read!
LINK TO JOHN ARQUILLA and David F. RONFELDT'S THE ADVENT OF NETWAR
Note that on the above page you have BOTH a link to buy the book (US$ 20) AND
the links to all the 6 chapters in PDF for FREE.
Contents (PDF)
Preface
Summary
Acknowledgments
Chapter One: Introduction
Chapter Two: Conceptual Outlines
Chapter Three: A World in Flux - Ripe for Netwar Chapter Four: Varieties of Netwar
Chapter Five: Challenges for U.S Policy and Organization
Chapter Six: Implications for U.S. Doctrine and Strategy
Bibliography




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