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Wednesday, September 08, 2004The French Metaphor (an answer to Michele)Michele, the author of Letters From NYC, asked me recently if I could give some explanation about some attitudes of the French. She wondered: “Are the French that naive or do they have blinders on. Do they really think that their past history towards Arabs, and their new Paris law on female students would be overlooked by these zealots?” And then, I think quite rightly, she stated, like thinking aloud: “The implications if they [the al Qaeda terrorists] do release these journalists are tremendous. Or perhaps I'm missing something?”  I will try to answer… No, I don’t think Michele is missing anything essential. Indeed, the evaluation by the French politicians of the terrorist threat has more often been tainted by self-delusion than impregnated by their presumed famous Cartesian rationality. They are like the man who in face of an impending catastrophe pinches himself while saying “I’m dreaming! I’m dreaming! I’m dreaming! This is not for real.” They just don’t want this war to be real. Until now, somehow, many of them expected the al Qaeda threat to fade away into oblivion or, at least, to become a distant scourge, something that concerned others.  After 10 years living in France, I can flat out certify that “naïve” isn’t the adjective that befits best the average French politician; try guileful, canny or perhaps even oversubtle. So, they must have some sort of blinders on. What sort of blinders? Barring sheer dishonesty, blind wishful thinking seems the most at hand explanation for much of the French elite refusing to look reality into the eye and trying to nitpicker away the notion of being at war. One can understand that: it’s a matter of statistics. Muslims are over 10% of the population in many places in France, including Paris. About 5,5 million. Assuming that 10% may have some sympathy for al Qaeda (that in itself is a very optimistic figure, again falling for wishful thinking), that means some 500,000 potential supporters of terrorism; assume now that 1% would be prepared to actively help the terrorists…  You don’t want to believe that in the Paris region you may have 15,000 people ready to participate in Jihad. Of course, one can always seek relief in seeing the figures the other way around: 90% of the French Muslims aren’t potential supporters of terrorism. In the Paris region you have 1,485,000 Muslims who aren’t ready to participate in the Jihad. That’s the line of thought that the French government decided to follow when the Americans asked them if they please would be willing to participate in the War on Terror. But then, I’m really not that sure that it’s wise here to apply the metaphor of the half-empty/half-full glass of water. How many people does it take to plant a bomb on a train?
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